Topic
Economy
Inflation, jobs, surveys and the Federal Reserve: the releases that move the whole market, and how to read them.
A handful of scheduled releases move almost every stock at once: the inflation reports, the monthly jobs report, the purchasing managers' surveys and the Federal Reserve's decisions and minutes. The pages here explain what each one measures, when it arrives, and which line in it deserves the most attention.
Rates reach individual holdings too, most directly through dividend stocks, whose yields compete with what safe money pays.
For a trader the practical questions are narrower than the economics. Which release lands before the open tomorrow, is it likely to move the index your positions follow, and is the figure that moves prices the headline, the core reading or a revision to last month? Each page answers those for one release, then says what the number cannot tell you, since a single month of any series carries noise that the next report may undo.
Analysis
- Core Inflation Deserves More of Your Attention Than the Headline
For the direction of interest rates and valuations, the core inflation trend matters more than the headline print.
- Jobs Report Revisions: One Payroll Number Is Only a First Draft
A single monthly jobs number is an early estimate that later reports revise, so judge the labor market on revisions and the three-month trend.
Explainers
Glossary
- Basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point, or 0.01%, used to quote changes in interest rates, bond yields, spreads and fees; 100 basis points equal one percentage point.
- Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
A monthly survey of purchasing managers turned into a diffusion index, where a reading above 50 means more respondents reported growth than contraction.